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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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