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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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