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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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