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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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