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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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