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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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