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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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