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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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