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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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