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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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