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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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