We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
|
|
|
Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
|
| |
| |
|
