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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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