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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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