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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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