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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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