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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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