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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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