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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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