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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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