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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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