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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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