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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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