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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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