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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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