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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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