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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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