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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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