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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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