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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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