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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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