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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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