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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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