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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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