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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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