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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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