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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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