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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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