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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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