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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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