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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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