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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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