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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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