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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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