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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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