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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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