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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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