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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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