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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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