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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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