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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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