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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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