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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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