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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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