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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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