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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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